App Phones – Who will win?

Three are a number of scenarios that are being discussed these days about the Motorola Droid, Android and the Google NexusOne phone and what they mean for the future of mobile applications.  Before I give my opinion on who will win, I want to take a moment to talk about why the mobile app platform market is so important.

The fact is, humans have fallen in love with mobile phones from the outset.  And each incremental level of functionality, (sms, e-mail, lousy web, good web, web enabled clients, non-web apps – actually that sounds like a blog post on its own right there!) has caused us to love our phones/mobile devices even more.  We’ve become dependent on our phones to entertain us and keep us in touch with our friends.  We send a text when we can’t get a call through or are on another call.  We use our phones to find movie times, addresses, menus, phone numbers and directions.  We use them to run our businesses.  We just flat out love our phones, even the basic ones.

In order to focus on each possible scenario in detail, I’m going to do 3 or 4 blog posts.  And here’s why I don’t know if I’m going to write 3 or 4 parts – I just don’t know where the Blackberry fits.  As a former Blackberry lover I know that there are some people who will never ever give up their Blackberrys.  They just won’t and I don’t blame them.  But in the mass market phone/smart phone/app phone discussion, the folks at RIM hold the wildcard.  (And now I’m asking myself, what card do the folk at Nokia, Palm and Sony Erickson hold?  The Joker?)

Scenario 1 – Android Takes Over

To many, this seems like the inevitable story and they may be right.

Why It’s Great: There is a great deal to admire about Google’s approach to an Open Source smartphone operating system with great web and application capabilities.  The fact that phone manufacturers and industry specific manufacturers can take Android and customize it for their own purposes means that there will be an amazing amount of creativity, a wide selection of powerful phones to choose from and a dizzying number of applications to download or purchase.

Another positive movement is the fact that Google is selling their phone direct, allowing customers more flexibility.  For instance, if you travel overseas, the NexusOne will allow you to insert your own SIM card in the phone.  This means cheaper phone service when you travel and I’m sure there are already providers thinking about selling 1-week SIM cards.  Other Android manufacturers can offer the same functionality.  This will be a powerful asset for the Jet Set.

Why It’s Scary: We know that there will be plenty of ads on the NexusOne.  Ads are Google’s primary business.  Another important business for Google is data crunching and you can be sure they will be tracking trends like crazy for those on the NexusOne.  Are there Google data hooks in the browsers on the other phones leveraging the Android platform?  I’m guessing yes.  (btw, How soon before they drop that NexusOne name?  Any guesses?)

But the scariest part of the Android phone movement is viruses.  Apple runs all apps through the App Store review process for a reason.  They may have a bunch of rules and seem to take a long time to approve apps, but Apple are looking out for their customers.  Android is an open source platform.  Android phone providers will not have the controls or legal standing in place to review every application.  Even as an iPhone user I am occasionally freaked out by some of the apps my kids have downloaded.  They look like they are running viruses even if they aren’t.  Those of us who commit to the Droid are looking at a future where we really need to be careful about what we download, about virus protection, virus removal, etc.  Can you imagine if a virus got a hold of your mobile phone address book or your text message history?  Yikes!  Here’s a great article from Phandroid about the potential for malicious programs to run on Android and the exposures in Google’s construct.

If Google = Microsoft and Android = DOS/Windows, we are in for a bumpy ride.

Next Posting:  Scenario 2:  The Semi-Smart Phone

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